UNC Basketball: Stock Report - Week 20

Carolina is headed to Los Angeles after two wins in Charlotte. How are the Hollywood Heels looking as they enter the Sweet Sixteen?

Are you relaxed yet?

Two games with some strange hiccups turned into two double-digit wins. UNC maintained its perfect record in the Spectrum Center this season, beating Wagner and Michigan State to earn a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. But it wasn’t all smooth sailing.

Carolina only had a 12-point margin over grossly overmatched Wagner, who only suited up seven Seahawks. The Heels were down 12 points at one point in the first half against Michigan State before Spartan-kicking Tom Izzo’s squad down a giant hole and winning by 16. That performance put the college basketball universe on notice, since many folks started believing the Sparty hype after they handled Mississippi State in the first round.

These were two very different games with different types of performances from Carolina, but the overall trend line is going up. Let’s take a look at how our stocks are doing as UNC heads west to win the West Regional.
STOCK UP

RJ Davis and Armando Bacot: I’m putting these two together for this week’s Stock Report. Why? If you’ll recall, one of the formulas for UNC’s success was steady scoring from these two, with a third scorer chipping in. We’ll get to the third scorer in a minute, but you need the veteran duo of Davis and Bacot to lay a solid foundation.

RJ Davis dropped 20 to lead Carolina to a win over Michigan State and a Sweet 16 berth 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ckb3LwsFyv

— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) March 24, 2024

Consider that done.

RJ averaged 21 points last weekend (20 & 22 against Wagner and MSU, respectively) and Armando chipped in with 38 total points (20 & 18). That’s a solid baseline that others were able to layer on top of. When these two work in concert, it gives opposing defenses a lot to think about. Bacot dominated the post and drew a lot of fouls, shooting 6-7 and 8-10 from the line. Davis was dynamic and put pressure on defenders with his alternating speed driving, and ever-present danger from the perimeter.

If these two keep humming along, UNC is going to be a tough out, no matter who they play.

Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram: These two are lumped together as the “third scorer” in UNC’s formula for success.

Not every game has to be the season finale at Duke, when flames were coming off Cormac’s hand whenever he shot. Ingram doesn’t have to grind the offense down by isolating and backing down a defender for ten seconds 20 times a game. They just need to be available and take quality shots when they’re open. Merely getting double-digit points is more than sufficient if Bacot and Davis maintain their levels.

This is exactly what the transfers provided in Charlotte. Ryan scored 13 and 14 points against Wagner and MSU, and Ingram chipped in 9 and 17, easily averaging double-digits. Ryan hit multiple threes in each game and was 100% from the free throw line. Ingram had a huge night shooting three-pointers against Michigan State, going 5-7 from distance, and keeping Carolina within touching distance when they trailed by 12 early in the first half.

These types of performances—along with mini-explosions like Ingram had against Michigan State—will serve the Tar Heels well. If they can have simultaneous mini-explosions, or just outright/gigantic explosions, Carolina could cut down the nets in Phoenix.
Hold

Jae’Lyn Withers: Withers had the best game of his Carolina career against Wagner, but then had a very uneven performance against MSU. Withers chipped in four points off of hustle and his usual baseline prowling, but got cooked a bit by Malik Hall.

While what Withers provided against Wagner cannot be ignored, it was against competition lacking in size and stature. Carolina will not face another opponent like that for the rest of the tournament. Future opponents will only get better than Michigan State, so while we can be excited about his showing in Charlotte, I think we need to hold before calling for more minutes in Los Angeles.
STOCK DOWN

Elliot Cadeau: This is becoming a strange tale of contradictions.

Cadeau continues to be the grease that keeps the team’s offensive engine running, despite teams sagging off of the freshman point guard when he’s behind the three-point line. Cadeau obliged MSU a bit by shooting four three-pointers, hitting none.

This came after a muted performance against Wagner, where he did not score a point and played only 18 minutes. UNC was able to withstand Cadeau’s absense, as Hubert Davis opted to go big, sticking Withers in the line-up to take advantage of the smaller Seahawks.

Cadeau was also a bit loose with the ball against Wagner, throwing four turnovers, usually while trying to advance the ball too quickly. Against Michigan State and with a calmer tempo, he did not have any turnovers against four assists, including a nice bounce pass to Bacot after selling action to RJ Davis on a curl:
If Carolina is able to run, Cadeau will be golden. But the more the Heels find themselves in half-court meat grinders, the more Cadeau’s lack of outside shooting will start to pinch. It’s worth monitoring in Los Angeles.(Hopefully) two more games are on tap in Los Angeles and UNC looks to be leaning forward again after the disappointing loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament. Who do you think is primed for a star turn in Hollywood? Let us know in the comments!